IRCTC Shares Surge 2percent after Q4 FY25 Results: Buy, Sell, or Hold? Your Ultimate Stock Market Strategy!
The share price of IRCTC increased by over 2 percent during Thursday's trading session following the company's strong performance in Q4 FY25. At 9:20 AM on May 29, the railway stock was trading at ₹786.55, up from its previous closing price of ₹776.35 on Wednesday.
IRCTC’s revenue during the quarter rose to ₹1,269 crore from ₹1,152 crore a year earlier. The results were aided by a one-time gain of ₹45.68 crore.
IRCTC reported an EBITDA of ₹385.5 crore for the quarter, marking a 6.4% increase compared to ₹362.5 crore in the same period last year. However, the EBITDA margin declined slightly to 30.39% from 31.47% YoY.
For the full fiscal year FY25, IRCTC's net profit rose to ₹1,315 crore, up 18% from ₹1,111 crore in FY24. Annual revenue also climbed almost 10% to ₹4,675 crore from ₹4,260 crore a year earlier.
IRCTC’s catering revenue during the quarter remained stable at ₹529 crore compared to ₹531 crore in the same quarter last year.
Rail Neer, the company’s packaged drinking water business, saw revenue increase to ₹96 crore from ₹83 crore.
The web ticketing segment posted revenue of ₹372 crore, up from ₹342 crore, while tourism revenue saw a significant jump to ₹274 crore from ₹199 crore in the year-ago period.
IRCTC Dividend -
The company’s board has recommended a final dividend of ₹1 per share for FY25.
IRCTC Stock performance -
3 Months: IRCTC stock gained 8.71%.
6 Months: IRCTC stock declined by 3.57%.
1 Year: IRCTC stock decreased by 30.18%, reflecting market corrections after a high of ₹1,138.90.
5 Years: IRCTC stock surged by 184.19%, showcasing IRCTC's long-term growth despite recent downturns.
Stock Market Strategy for IRCTC -
Macquarie (Outperform, TP ₹900): Macquarie maintains an outperform rating, citing a strong Q4 FY25 performance driven by spiritual tourism, AC rail dominance, and railway platform upgrades. They project low-teens growth with a 30% free cash flow (FCF) margin and strong return on invested capital (ROIC).
PL Capital (April 2025): Forecasted a 22.6% YoY PAT increase to ₹338.8 crore for Q4 FY25, indicating optimism about earnings growth.
Choice Broking (Sumeet Bagadia): Suggests a potential rebound to ₹780, with a stop loss at ₹700, citing technical support above ₹700. Recommends holding for existing shareholders and momentum buying for new investors.
IIFL Securities: Notes that measures like price increases for Rail Neer and per-passenger convenience fees could lift earnings, but visibility on these remains low. High valuations (~52x FY24 earnings) limit room for earnings surprises.
Prabhudas Lilladher (Jinesh Joshi): Highlights concerns about ticketing volume slowdown due to the reclassification of 2S class to unreserved categories, which may pressure short-term growth. Catering, while a revenue driver, has lower margins and may not significantly boost profitability.
Simply Wall St: Projects earnings growth of 11.04% per year, supported by historical earnings growth of 28.4% annually over the past five years. However, they note an unstable dividend track record.
Money Mint Idea: Predicts a bullish long-term trend, with price targets for 2025 ranging from ₹650 to ₹800, and potential highs of ₹2,000 by 2030, driven by IRCTC’s diversified portfolio and technological innovations.
Wallet Investor: Forecasts a long-term price increase to ₹824.691 in one year (+16.01% from March 2025 levels) and up to ₹1,181.919 by 2030 (+66.26%), recommending IRCTC as a good long-term investment.
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